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Experts Provide Realistic Prices for 2018 Bordeaux Wine Futures

Left: Burak Kazaz, Right: Hakan Hekimoglu

May 9, 2019

Experts Provide Realistic Prices for 2018 Bordeaux Wine Futures

Supply chain management researchers use proven model to forecast certain wine prices

In a report published by the London International Vintners Exchange (Liv-ex), researchers at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute and Syracuse University provide realistic prices for 2018 Bordeaux wines.

The researchers developed a highly accurate algorithm that utilizes weather data, expert reviews, and market conditions. The same pricing algorithm provided guidance to buyers for the 2017 vintage, where actual release prices deviated by less than 10 percent.

Created by Hakan Hekimoglu, assistant professor of supply chain management at the Lally School of Management at Rensselaer, and Burak Kazaz, the Steven R. Becker Professor of Supply Chain Management at Syracuse University’s Whitman School of Management and a visiting professor at the University of California Berkeley’s Haas School of Business, the algorithm is the first of its kind in the industry to combine the multiple factors that influence wine price into a single model.

These factors include the temperatures and precipitation present during the grape growing season, the scores assigned to each wine by tasting experts, and the conditions and fluctuations experienced in the fine wine market.

“Depending on these factors, tremendous price fluctuations can be observed from one vintage to another, even if they are produced by the same winemaker,” said Hekimoglu. “Our predictions help those in the industry analyze prices when making purchasing decisions.”

This year, Hekimoglu and Kazaz used market data from the Liv-ex Fine Wine 100 Index and tasting scores assigned by wine critics Lisa Perrotti-Brown and James Suckling to make their predictions.

While the 2018 vintage experienced factors that would typically lead to a price increase, such as higher temperatures, lower amounts of precipitation, and higher barrel tasting scores from wine critics, a reduction in market conditions is expected to lead to a slight reduction in average prices. The report shows the realistic prices for some chateaus increasing and for some decreasing as a result of the critics’ barrel scores.

The full report, titled “Realistic Prices With Barrel Tasting Scores of Lisa Perrotti-Brown and James Suckling,” can be found here.

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Founded in 1824, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute is America’s first technological research university. Rensselaer encompasses five schools, 32 research centers, more than 145 academic programs, and a dynamic community made up of more than 7,900 students and more than 100,000 living alumni. Rensselaer faculty and alumni include more than 145 National Academy members, six members of the National Inventors Hall of Fame, six National Medal of Technology winners, five National Medal of Science winners, and a Nobel Prize winner in Physics. With nearly 200 years of experience advancing scientific and technological knowledge, Rensselaer remains focused on addressing global challenges with a spirit of ingenuity and collaboration.